A detailed monsoon forecast with zone wise rainfall probability will be issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) today.
Apart from giving monsoon forecasts for the four geographical regions, IMD will also update its monsoon forecast for the season, covering June, July, August and September. It will issue a forecast for June separately.
The monsoon for this year is likely to bring the normal amount of rainfall at 98% of the long period average (LPA), IMD had said on April 16.
Monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to take place around June 3, IMD said on Monday, adding that monsoon presently was passing across Sri Lanka and had been there for two days.
As per the latest meteorological indications, the southwesterly winds could strengthen further gradually from June 1, resulting in an increase in rainfall activity over Kerala.
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“It has been raining over Kerala but we cannot announce monsoon onset until all parameters are met. They are likely to be met in the next couple of days. We are monitoring continuously,” M Mohapatra, director general, IMD said.
“Monsoon is now over Sri Lanka. The very next point will be Kerala. Rains had reduced over Kerala in the past two days. Westerly winds are picking up now,” added DS Pai, scientist and head of climate research services at IMD Pune.
A cyclonic circulation over eastcentral Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast is likely to meander over the region during the next four days. Southwesterly winds are also likely to strengthen during the next 2-3 days. Under the influence of these and other favourable meteorological conditions; scattered to fairly widespread rainfall or thunderstorm activity is likely over Karnataka and Kerala and Mahe and isolated to scattered rainfall or thunderstorm over the remaining parts of south peninsular India during the next 4-5 days.
Moderate to extremely heavy rain was recorded over many parts of east and northeast India, including east Garo Hills (32cm); Bhalukpong (13 cm); Lakhimpur (11cm); Jamshedpur (17cm); Pollur, Tikrikilla, Dhemaji, and Kolar (9cm); Barpeta (8cm); Uthiramerur, Dharamsthla, Vellore, Matheran, Shanti Niketan, Itanagar, Cherrapunji, Kokrajhar, and Nongstoin (7cm) each.
Extremely heavy rainfall (over 20cm) was recorded at isolated places over Assam and Meghalaya; heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Jharkhand and Arunachal Pradesh and heavy rainfall over Gangetic West Bengal, north Konkan, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
The monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is critical to the country’s agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy. Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending. It is the lifeline for about 60% of the country’s net cultivated area, which has no irrigation. It impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. Ample harvests raise rural incomes and help inject demand into the economy.
Nearly half of India’s population depends on a farm-based livelihood. The rains also replenish 89 nationally important reservoirs critical for drinking and power generation.